Fact Check: Is Volcanic Activity Spiking Around the World?

Volcanoes simultaneously erupting across the globe grabbed headlines this week, with eruptions recorded in Italy, Iceland, Japan, Mexico and Russia.

The Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program added three new eruptions to its most recent weekly catalog of noteworthy activity, a list that contained 16 other global eruptions.

Reports of this activity quickly gathered attention across social media, with some suggesting the number of eruptions at one time is an unusual occurrence.

The Claim

Several posts on X, formerly Twitter, suggested that recent volcanic eruptions across the globe were unusual.

A post by the founder of file-sharing website Megaupload, Kim Dotcom, on November 14, 2023, which was viewed more than 100,000 times stated: "Volcanoes erupt simultaneously in Italy, Iceland, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Philippines, etc. Below is a volcanic activity map of 2013 vs 2023. Totally normal, right?"

Conspiracy theorist account Concerned Citizen, published a post on November 13, 2023, viewed more than 400,000 times, that stated: "Today I have seen confirmed & accurate reports of volcanic activity in Iceland, Sweden, Japan & now Mexico.

"Absolutely no f****** way these are all coincidences......"

The Facts

The Global Volcanism Program has stated that it has not seen "any evidence that volcanic activity is actually increasing" and that trends in volcanic activity "are overshadowed by reporting factors such as historical events, technological changes, and exploration influences."

"The apparent increase in activity reflects increases in populations living near volcanoes to observe eruptions and improvements in communication technologies to report those eruptions," it adds.

Newsweek spoke to multiple volcanology experts about the recent pattern of volcanic activity.

It is not unusual for about a dozen volcanoes to be erupting at the same time with some 40 to 60 volcanoes erupting around the world each year, according to Christopher Kilburn, professor of volcanology and geophysical hazards at University College London.

"However, there may be an unusual increase in the number of reports that circulate in the media, especially if a volcano is near a populated area or when dramatic video is available showing an eruption in progress," Kilburn said.

"We have historical records of eruptions from about 1,500 volcanoes. Recorded history (as opposed to oral history) goes back some 200-4,000 years depending on the part of the world we're discussing.

"That's a blip in the lifetime of a volcano, which is measured in tens to hundreds of thousands of years, sometimes more, and it's believed that as many as 10,000 volcanoes have the potential to erupt again, [although] the number is an informed guess."

Volcanologist, professor Jenni Barclay of the University of East Anglia, echoed Kilburn's statement, adding: "This is very much an instance of people noticing volcanoes erupting more than usual.

"It's very normal for a few tens of volcanoes to be erupting worldwide at any one time."

The Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program, reports that as of October 11, 2023, there were 46 volcanoes in continuing eruption status. Although this does not mean that each volcano has "persistent daily" indications of eruption, they have "at least intermittent eruption events without a break of 3 months or more."

As previously stated, the Volcanism Program reports on weekly activity which includes the recent unrest in Iceland, and continuing activity in Japan, Italy and Russia, among others.

While there are 46 volcanoes in continuing eruption status, this list of 19 eruptions in the weekly list meets a particular set of thresholds:

• "A volcano observatory raises or lowers the alert level at the volcano."
• "A volcanic ash advisory has been released by a volcanic ash advisory center (VAAC) stating that an ash cloud has been produced from the volcano."
• "A verifiable news report of new activity or a change in activity at the volcano has been issued."
• "Observers have reported a significant change in volcanic activity. Such activity can include, but is not restricted to, pyroclastic flows, lahars, lava flows, dome collapse, or increased unrest."

Professor Edward Llewellin, a lecturer in volcanology at Durham University, England, told Newsweek there are more than 1,500 volcanoes around the world that are active "in the sense that they have had recent eruptions, and will very likely erupt again."

"Most of these eruptions have little newsworthiness and so the average person just doesn't hear about them," Llewellin said.

"The eruptions that make the news are usually either large, have a major human impact, are particularly video/photogenic...

"Take, for instance, the eruption in La Palma [Canary Islands] in 2021. That was not particularly large, but it did have a major human impact on an island that is a major destination for U.K. tourists—hence it was widely reported here."

This was the case with the recent activity, such as in Iceland where thousands of people have been evacuated from areas nearby the eruption.

Professor Llewellin added that as media interest picks up around eruption, other information about eruptions and volcanic activity gathers newsworthiness too and, with it, greater awareness of ongoing but hereto underreported stories.

"A perfect example here is the current volcanic crisis in Iceland," Llewellin said.

"Following the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010, and the Fagradalsfjall eruptions in 2021/22/23, there is elevated interest in Icelandic volcanism, and the ongoing seismic swarm, and associated ground deformation in the western part of the Fagradalsfjall system is making the news even though there is no eruption, yet."

The Ruling

False.

Although the recent reports of eruptions across the globe have attracted headlines, experts say there is no unusual increase in activity.

The most recent data produced by researchers studying volcanic activity across the globe shows that 46 active volcanoes are erupting around the world right now, characterized by "at least intermittent eruption events without a break of three months or more."

The spike perceived by some is, some experts suggest, the result of media reports, which focus not only on the number of eruptions but the disruption caused by them.

FACT CHECK BY Newsweek's Fact Check team