The Portland area’s population continued to shrink in 2023, but the decline has slowed to a trickle, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Federal data released Thursday show the Portland region — which spans five Oregon counties and two in Washington state — shed a scant 0.03% of its residents, just under 900 people, in the year leading up to July 1. The metro area’s population total now stands at 2,508,050.
In the year prior, through July 2022, the region lost 0.36% of its population, or 9,100 residents.
The slower decline is good news for the regional economy, which relies on working-age newcomers to fill open jobs and fuel economic growth. Oregon’s population is the oldest on average in the West, and among the oldest in the nation.
The new census numbers indicate that the slowdown in the regional population decline is largely thanks to Clark County.
Map: Population change, July 2022-23
The county in southwest Washington gained more than 4,400 residents, representing 0.85% growth that brought its population to 521,000. Clark County has grown 3.1% since July 2020.
In comparison, Multnomah County lost about 0.6% of its residents, or 4,900 people, last year. Oregon’s largest county has shed 3.3% of its population since July 2020 and now has just under 790,000 residents.
Nearby Washington County has shed roughly 0.4% of its population since 2020. It lost 1,221 residents last year, representing a 0.2% decline that brings the total population to 599,000.
Meanwhile, Clackamas County has held steady in population since 2020. Last year, the county added 55 residents, according to the Census Bureau, a mere 0.01% growth from 2022 that brings the total number of residents to roughly 423,000.
The trend reported by the Census Bureau differs from estimates produced by Portland State University’s Population Research Center, which showed that Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas counties all gained new residents in the year ending in July 1. Specifically, the center figures that Multnomah County added 404 residents, while Washington and Clackamas counties gained 5,677 and 2,506 residents, respectively.
Portland State University’s population estimates don’t always exactly match up with the Census Bureau’s numbers as each uses slightly different data sources and models. While both estimates begin with the counts from the 2020 national census and rely on records such as birth certificates, death certificates, driver’s license applications and other indicators, their methodologies differ.
“In our model, we use the data for the current year,” said Huda Alkitkat, a population estimates program manager at Portland State, “which helps us reflect on the current situation as much as possible.”
The two estimates primarily disagree on migration into and out of Oregon counties. Alkitkat said the Population Research Center’s estimates indicate that more people moved into Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas counties than moved away. Of those, Census Bureau only reported positive migration in Clackamas County. (The Portland State center doesn’t produce estimates for counties in Washington state.)
Chart: Portland region population change each year since 2020
Ethan Sharygin, director of the Population Research Center at Portland State, said the Census Bureau primarily relies on IRS tax return data, which are only available through 2021.
“We use data that are more current and state-specific to estimate migration,” Sharygin said. “We do also consult the IRS data, but only for the year that it applies, without carrying forward.”
Sharygin said the center also uses data from state agencies, such as data from when people change the address on their driver license, which is available through 2023.
Policymakers use both sets of data to allocate funding for state and federal programs. But political representation and district boundaries are based on the direct census counts conducted every 10 years.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this story incorrectly identified the percentage growth rate for Clackamas County’s population. The story has been updated.
--Kristine de Leon covers retail, data and business trends. Reach her at kdeleon@oregonian.com
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